The Climate Change Problem Problem: An Analogy
In 1964, the Surgeon General issued the first warning about the dangers of cigarette smoking. Now 44 years later, people still smoke and teenagers continue to be the worst offenders. In the 20th Century about 100 million people died from smoking: that number is projected to jump to 1 billion in this century. Facts and research did not (and does not) change behavior. Warnings on cigarette packages did not change behavior. The price of cigarettes, including higher sin taxes, has not stopped smoking. Government banning smoking in bars and restaurants and other public places has only stopped some smoking and saved some lives. Things are finally getting better in some countries in terms of new smokers, but worse in others. (See above link.)
Problem One: There is no difference between our response to cigarette smoking that takes a personal toll and climate change that takes a more abstract collective toll. Climate change is more debatable, on less scientific footing than smoking. Cigarette smoking damages my body, climate change does something elsewhere that I can’t feel or touch. Individuals, governments, and companies have taken the same attitude and approach to both. A lot of government smoking regulations have been enacted, but companies find new ways to market and manufacture cigarettes. Today, the Congressional Black Caucus is seeking a ban on menthal cigarettes that are disproportinately marketed to the black community. The history of climate change regulations tracks much the same way. Most of us don’t recycle because of the merits of recycling, but because laws require us to do so, where there are such laws. If it has taken 44 years to do something about smoking: how long will it take to do something substantive about climate change?Â
Problem Two: We don’t behave on the basis of facts or research, but on the basis of experience. As many of you know, it is called cognitive dissonance, and Behavior Change.org has a good summary of this knotty problem that complicates our proposed solutions to smoking and climate change. Dire warnings about the cigarette smoking, using pot, climate change, failure to use seatbelts, fatty diets, driving while talking on cellphones, and on and on does little, if anything to change behavior. The warnings about the North Pole melting by the end of this summer is far, far removed from any experiences that I have had. Until I feel the impact of climate change in personal terms that I experience, I will leave the change to others. That’s the big challenge. That’s the hurdle to change.Â
Posted: July 2nd, 2008 under Best of the Blogs.
Comments: 6
Comments
Comment from Max
Time: July 2, 2008, 5:45 am
Josh,
I agree with you. Most Americans will not move until it is waaaaaay too late. Tipping point is around this year.
But I do not think that even a landslide Obama victory can change things. Too many vested interests. So I think events will take their course. By the time people realize, it will be too late.
However, I do think that in time we can even reverse Global warming. The thing is, the United States will not exist in it’s present configuration. We will hardly recognize, it will probably be enclaves of semi civilization surrounded by desert wilderness.
It is time to build arks.
I think Japan will retain civilization and structure, because of our electric transport system. We may only lose 20% or 30% of our population. Also many private Japanese firms are very busy in designing products that are very eco and clean. I have mentioned water absorbent asphalt that lowers surface temperature 14 degrees Centigrade. The other day on TV I saw a man with a folder, the size that you would buy in any stationary store. He opened it, it was a solar power cell array for charging cell phones.
Someday, within the next 20 to 30 years, it could be reasonable to take European Russian, Chinese and Japanese scientists, and what survives of the US science establishment, and try to create a solution to global warming.
And then we will have the government of the scientists, who will not leave the management of human affairs to greedy corporate interests or wacko religious nuts.
But humanity may survive.
Comment from Josh Hammond
Time: July 2, 2008, 6:38 am
Max, this is the most hopeful I have heard you in recent posts and comments. Don’t go soft on me now.
If gas prices top $5 by election day it helps Obama, as I see it. I don’t expect it will, so I see things perking along as usual. The economy should start to rebound early next year, no matter who is president, and it will be back to life in the fast lane.
Comment from Pat
Time: July 2, 2008, 7:44 am
My Mother died from cigarette smoking, and even while she was in the hospital dying, she still wanted a cigarette. Denial is something that’s hard to break through. When I talk to people about the way this country is headed because of gas prices, global warming, the economy, etc., some of them can barely control their eye-rolling. Others agree with me, but they do absolutely nothing to change their behavior. More denial.
It seems that whenever the government starts a war on something, smoking, drugs, cancer, terrorism and so on, it’s a war that never ends. The problems don’t go away. They may not get any worse, but in most cases, they don’t get any better, either. But then after the war is publicly declared on any of these causes, most of the people in this country become complacent about the problems. This time, I feel things will become so bad that the people who are sitting on their behinds waiting for the gov’t to solve the problems are going to be devastated.
Comment from timr
Time: July 2, 2008, 9:02 am
people by and large are sheeple. They form impressions of things without regard for the truth-the clark interview and statements about McCain(that he did not say) are a fine example. Truthiness-(truth unencumbered by fact)copyright by S. Colbert-is everywhere, as is wikiality which is defined as reality as determined by majority vote. There is a damn good reason why presidents are not elected by popular vote, and those reasons are truthiness and wikiality which have been writ large by the sheeple. Chaos rules, the sheeple vote based on what their gut tells them or if they would like to have a beer with the candidate, if the candidate is in fact intelligent, then the MSM will tear him down like a pack of starving Jackals
Comment from Josh Hammond
Time: July 2, 2008, 9:46 am
Pat, it was Richard Nixon who started the “war thing”. First cancer, then drug abuse. While there is much progress on the cancer front, there is practically no progress on the drug abuse front. One problem with “wars” is not only do they go on for ever, as you point out, but they are not really wars. If we fought the war in Afganistan or the invasion of Iraq the way we fight these wars, we’d have one troup of boy scouts on there way there, and we would have studies and surveys about what the problem is and how we should approach it. Hell, we might even have a conference at the White House as has been the case with cancer and drugs.
A sad state of affairs.
Comment from Max
Time: July 2, 2008, 9:59 am
Josh, try $7 or $8 a gallon in November? The economy is never going to go back like it was, a massive readjustment has begun. And it will be worldwide.
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