Will be Muqtada al-Sadr. Hands down. There is no other figure in Iraq with comparable stature and power. This is not very good for what remains of American goals in Iraq. Frankly, outside of rebuilding the Green Zone as a Disneyesque entertainment complex, I really do not know what concrete goals America DOES have in Iraq.

But back to Muqtada. A large part of his rise was due to direct mistakes by George Bush and Paul Bremer. When America first invaded Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr was a minor figure. However, he did come from a famous religious family. Also, his father, Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr and older brothers had been killed by Saddam.

But American efforts to eliminate him because of some minor newspaper gave him status.

Muqtada never went into exile, and pretended to be somewhat mentally feeble, in order to survive Saddam. And here is one great pillar of his popularity. Unlike other Iraqi leaders, Muqtada never went into exile. He stayed in Iraq and shared in the dangers that faced other Shia every day. This gives him tremendous popularity.

After the initial invasion, the US went through a musical chairs game of Iraqi leaders. The first was to be Ahmed Chalabi, darling of the prowar parties in Washington and London. When he proved too odious, Ayad Allawi was installed in his place. When the Shia demanded elections, and forced America to agree to them, Ibrahim Jaafari won.

By the way, America did not want free elections, but was forced to agree after the Ayatollah al Sistani spoke a word, and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi’s took to the streets.

In any case, Jaafari was soon followed by Nouri Al Maliki, who is presently Prime Minister.

All these men lived in exile. Chalabi, Washington and London. Al-Maliki Syria and Iran. Jaafari London. Allawi London. And here is another great mistake of the Bush administration. Historically, it is very difficult to invade a country and appoint an exile in power when a viable leader has existed underground within that country. That viable leader is Muqtada al-Sadr.

Muqtada’s father had built up an extensive social services network within the Shia community during his life, and Muqtada has maintained it, both under Saddam and American rule. In fact, since the Iraqi National government does not exist outside the Green Zone, Muqtada’s organization is the only recourse many Shia have.

Muqtada’s other great pillar of support is that he has opposed the US occupation from the beginning. In fact he has fought two pitched battles with US troops in Najaf. While his troops took great casualties in comparison to the damage inflicted on Americans, he won crucial political victories.

At first, after the American invasion, Muqtada’s power base was in Baghdad, particularly in the huge Shitte slum of Sadr city in east Baghdad.

The areas south of Baghdad were primarily controlled by The Badr Corps and people loyal to the Ayatollah al Sistani. The Badr Corps is a military organization that spent the Saddam years in exile in Iran. They entered southern Iraq on the heels of US invasion forces. Muqtada supporters were basically the poor Shia, the Middle class Shia tended to back the Badr corps and the Ayatollah al-Sistani.

However there has been a slow but steady drain of Shitte support to Muqtada’s Mahdi Army. Partly this is because Muqtada’s main pillars of support, militant opposition to the US occupation, and that he never went into exile. Another reason is that many of the middle class Shia have fled Iraq for exile in Jordon and Syria, thus reducing the power base for The Badr Corps.

And that brings us to the recent fighting this spring in Basra and Sadr City Baghdad. Billed as an attempt to restore law and order, it was actually an effort to curb the rising power of Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army.

The Basra attack was at first carried out solely by Iraqi National Army troops, (which are really Badr Corps militia, there is no true Iraqi National Army) and it collapsed within three days. Iraqi Army units either deserted to the Mahdi Army or simply disappeared. US airpower and ground troops had to be called in.

A similar thing has happened a month after the Basra fiasco in Sadr City Baghdad. Again Iraqi troops took to their heels. But this time the majority of troops were American. Yet Prime Minister Maliki called a truce with the Mahdi army, without forcing any serious concessions. In both fights, Iran played a significant behind the scenes role in getting each party to talk to each other. This is something that America has never been able to do. As a side note, one of the main reasons for the American assault on the Shitte stronghold in Baghdad was to stop the daily rain of missile and mortar fire on the Green Zone. It has only been toned down, not stopped.

Muqtada al-Sadr is the one man in Iraq who has a steadily growing power base that is his own. I feel that he will take over once America leaves, and he will strike a deal with the Sunni. After all, during his battle with Americans at Najaf, the Sunni sent help.

And even if America somehow manages to kill him, he is just as dangerous as a ghost.