How to attack Iran, a basic primer
In the last ten days or so, we have been treated to another spate of rhetoric aimed at Iran. Statements from Admiral Mullen that the US does have military resources in reserve, and other mouthings from various officials how, “all options are still on the table”.
As far as actual assets, all I could find was one extra aircraft carrier. And there will only be two carriers in the Persian Gulf temporarily at that. One has to head for home soon. Not nearly enough to be serious.
So what would it take to attack Iran? So many scenarios of possible conflict only deal with an initial air attack. They seem to assume Iran will fold. I have already written about how Iran can respond, and what a weak position we are in, but let us take this another way. Let us assume that we are serious.
That means go for Tehran. OK, so what would we need? First, take 3,300,000 ground troops. That is right, that is what we will need. Look at a map. There are two roads into Iran from Iraq. One goes Basra through Ahvaz towards Qom and on to Tehran. The road from the Baghdad area goes more in a direct line to Tehran. Also note that most of both routes is through the Zargos mountains. Ideal terrain for defense. Either way it is a little more than 300 miles from the Iraqi border to Tehran.
So in my plan, I envision 500,000 ground troops as a strike force, another 500,000 as a garrison force. The duties of the strike force would be to engage the Iranian Army in battle and destroy it. The duties of the garrison force would be to keep the supply routes open. This would be done by large encampments established on the routes, with mobile patrols.
By the way, estimates of Iranian ground troops total somewhere around one million. Our troops will be busy.
Another 100,000 would be to secure US supply lines in Iraq, and bases in Qatar and Bahrain.
Wait a minute, didn’t I give a figure three times that? Well yes, and this is common sense. A war against Iran is going to take years, and we will have to rotate our troops in and out, so we will have to have a total force three times as large as the troops stationed in Iran itself.
And even if we take Tehran, there is a lot of Iran left over. And forget about a domestic Resistance movement helping us out. They will not, they will all fight us.
And oh yes, I forgot to mention Naval forces. We will need to have bases consisting of several large barges moored every hundred miles or so along the Iranian coast. These would support small fact patrol and helicopters. Our destroyers and frigates are just too big to keep watch on all that those small ships that ply the Gulf, and to keep watch for Iranian missile bearing swift boats. And that would be more troops.
Anybody who tells we can strike Iran with anything less is in a fantasy land. And the Iranians know it. So what has the recent war rhetoric emanating from US sources been about? Trying to impress Americans that we mean business? I am not impressed. I am sure the Iranians are not impressed. All that President Bush’s administration has done is paint us into another diplomatic corner.
If we lack the means to do something, and everybody knows it, we should just keep our mouths shut.
Posted: May 7th, 2008 under Iran.
Comments: 4
Comments
Comment from Istlota
Time: May 8, 2008, 8:02 am
Even assuming that all this is true, one important fact has been overlooked. The Commander-In-Chief of American forces is not a sane man and it can not be assumed that he or the beasts who whisper in his ear will cease making irrational, insane foreign policy decisions.
If Japan’s leadership was sane, would they have ordered the bombing of Pearl Harbor? Is it wise for us to assume that our current government, insane enough to either orchestrate or allow 911, can be counted on to make wiser decisions than Hirohito did in 1941?
We MUST continue to march, and to write, and to blog, and to scream if necessary, so that the beasts know that we are NOT going to allow what they _ARE_ planning to do!
Not only is our POTUS insane, but even worse, he is the mouthpiece of true beasts who _WANT_ and have _PLANNED_ for the collapse of the American empire, followed, they think, by a New World Order, still governed by them, but based out of Europe instead of DC.
So, they tell W. that the US can, cleanly and surgically, nuke Iran’s nuclear facilities and walk away with minor consequences and our fool who came to power simply smiles and slurs, “And God Bless Us Everyone!”
Comment from JH
Time: May 8, 2008, 10:25 am
The writer of this article should be promoted to be the chief of U.S military. Wow, go back to high school an learn something about world affairs
Comment from timr
Time: May 8, 2008, 10:55 am
max, it is the neocons who are driving the plan to invade Iran. They have been pushing for this-like they did Iraq-since at least the first gulf war. They think-in their hubris-that Iran will overthrow their govt, and greet the US with hugs and kisses for freeing them to become a mini US(but with OIL) they had the exact same outcome in mind when they talked gwb and “the dick” into invading Iraq-I still have trouble understanding just how Iraq could threaten the US, dispite condi’s mushroom cloud and gwb’s voice of doom when he said that GB had learned-from the US-that Iraq attempted to buy uranium from Africa(which in fact turned out to be crap that came from the neocons, and from gwb and rummys great close friend-and agent of Iran-Chalabi) I would hope that behind the scenes the joint chiefs-and esp. the Army-are doing all they can(they can always stand on principle and resign en mass, but would they) to prevent the folly that would happen if we started a war with Iran-don’t fool yourself like the neocons have, if we attack anywhere in Iran, they, and perhaps the entire arab world-remember Pakistan? they are also a nuclear power, and Pak. is no longer our “friend”-would join in the battle against the great satan(us) Iran is Shia, and so is Iraq-who thinks of Iran as an ally, whose side would the shia of Iraq be on? Of course this could be the end game that most all of the evangelical preachers are talking about. They actually look forward to Armageddon!!!(which would we be, really, good or evil?) and the final war. Remember that Russia has put Iran under their umbrella of protection, so would an attack on Iran be the start of WWIII?-it could happen-worst case-remember how WWI started
Comment from Max
Time: May 8, 2008, 4:21 pm
A friend of mine, Dr. Robert Orr, who is influential in the Democratic Party, recently gave a debate with a member of Republicans abroad from Singapore in several cities in Japan. In his talk, Dr. Orr mention Barbara Tuchman’s book, 1914. He told us how at time, no European power really wanted war, yet we ended up slipping into one of the greatest slaughter is history, the results of which led to another great slaughter 20 years later.
I agree Tim, I also sincerely hope that SOMEBODY is putting a brake on the crazies. War anywhere is bad, but playing around with war in a place like the Middle East is madness.
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