Here is a letter that I wrote to a friend about the current situation with Admiral Fallon. I am posting it here, because of what I have written about the rantings of those who want to attack Iran.

Letter:
I just found some criticism on the net. They say that Admiral Fallon has continuously underestimated the Iranian threat and support of guerrillas in Iraq. The premise is that Iran is helping kill Americans.

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To me, this idea that Iran is supplying Resistance is simply an excuse for our own failure to tame the insurgency. Iran does back the Badr Corps somewhat, the military arm of SCIRI (Supreme Council Islamic Revolution Iraq) The Badr Corps and SCIRI were long exiled in Iran, and in our initial invasion, they followed on the heels of American troops and began to build their influence in Iraq’s south. However, the Badr Corps has basically neutral towards US forces, with little or no aggressive moves against US forces. The other major Shia group, the Mahdi Army, has fought two major month long battles with US forces. They both resulted in military defeat and great political victory for the Mahdi Army. Classic guerrilla stuff. However, the leader of the Mahdi Army, Muqtada al-Sadr, while a Shia, is deeply suspicious of Teheran. I do not believe he would accept much in the way of material help from Iran, it would obligate him in the future. And he is doing fine without it. I think it is very hard for some Americans to accept that a ragtag guerrilla group can fight our forces to standstill on their own. The premise is that they must be getting foreign technical help to do that. Well the facts are that they can and they have.

As far as the Iranians giving arms to the Sunni Resistance, this is fantasy cooked up by overheated Neocon minds. The Sunni are totally against the Shia having any power in Iraq, and want to return to the status quo under Saddam, with the Sunni ruling the Shia. So why would Iran supply such groups?

Iranian weapons supply into Iraq has long been touted as a reason to attack Iran. However, there has never been any concrete evidence. One great proof is a negative. Iran has made no effort to let hand held anti aircraft missiles into Iraq. They could easily do so. A reasonable supply of such weapons in the hands of the Iraqi Resistance would make our effort in Iraq extremely costly and impossible within two weeks. Since the entire country is a no go zone except in heavily armed convoy, we are totally dependent upon aircraft, both fixed wing and rotary. Such missiles would destroy our ability to maintain all those little outposts we have scattered around the country, and which are touted as the great surge success.

Admiral Fallon was simply stating common sense. Also, we will eventually have to withdraw our forces from Iraq. If we are to get everybody out, along with most of the equipment, the Kuwait/Persian Gulf route is essential. The cooperation of Iran will be absolutely necessary. To understand this, all a sensible person must do is look at a map of the region. Attack, Iran, and supply of our forces becomes impossible, let alone orderly withdrawal.

There are still too many people who think American forces can achieve anything they are ordered to do, that we are omnipotent. This is not true. We have have failed to win in Iraq, that is defeat. Of course it was impossible from the start. Poke at Iran, and we will have out and out military defeat, disaster. These are the great questions that I believe Admiral Fallon understood.