I am writing this about the possible US casualties if the US attacks Iran. The key to everything is supply, and here, geography is not our friend.

American forces consume a tremendous amount of fuel, food and ammunition, plus a lot of other stuff. This route of supply is essential to the American fighting ability. Without it, our troops become foot infantry, depending on the bayonet.

Look at this map:  (OK, the map here did not upload.  Just look at atlas of the Persian gulf for an idea)
In the Persian Gulf region, which I think is the most vulnerable, our deployments are as such: We have a major Air base in Qatar, and a Naval base in Bahrain. Otherwise, all our troops are in Kuwait and Iraq. Notice the geography of the Persian Gulf. It is like a long sack, with the neck at the Straits of Hormuz. If we bomb Iran, even a little bit, the Iranians can close it quite easily.

OK first of all, how many people are we talking about? My guess would be 345,000. This breaks down as: 160,000 troops. Although this number is bound to decrease as surge troops are sent back to the US, there are no troops to replace them. 180,000 private contractors. This is an estimate, but I think we should put things on the high end for planning purposes. and let us say some 5,000 diplomatic and other personnel in the Iraq theater along with personnel at the Qatar Air base and Bahrain Naval base. That is about 55,000 more the the German Sixth Army in WWII, that was surrounded at Stalingrad.

Now I don’t have exact figures of how things are going, but one thing is for sure. Most items of supply will come by sea, and then be transfered to trucks and delivered to the recipient troops. There are two routes. One is through the gulf into Kuwait, and then up the roads to Baghdad and other locations. The other is through Turkey, from the Med into northern Iraq. Both routes are vulnerable. Iraqi Resistance forces have stepped attacks on the Kuwait to Baghdad route, convoys have been cut from 8 to 5 a day. These convoys are not escorted by US troops but by private contractors. the northern route through Turkey depends on the goodwill both of the Turks and the Kurds.

Now, can the Iranians really cut off the sea route through the Persian Gulf. Absolutely. Here is a report of a war game played in 2002 by the US.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

Too many people assume that the US is unbeatable. Not at all so. The US leadership has been beating it’s chest for some time about attacking Iran, I am sure it would be correct to assume that they have not been sitting still. The above war game showed things that Iran can absolutely do. And believe me, they are already boasting about how they will hit us if we hit them.

Another thing to remember. The Persian Gulf is a long body of shallow water. It is full of Arabian and Iranian commercial vessels. Also, huge oil tankers move majestically in their designated shipping lanes. These ships are not maneuverable to any extent, they take miles to turn or stop. So the areas available for our carrier battlegroup to operate in will be few, and predictable. A big target for the Iranian missile boats. Not to mention that they have three Kilo class Russian submarines. They are very deadly in shallow water, basically, our Anti submarine Warfare forces probably won’t find them until after they have shot. We have two attack subs in the Gulf, but our boats are too big for shallow water, they don’t maneuver well, and their sonar ability is degraded by all the noise of a shallow bottom.

So I think we should assume that the Iranians will be able to close the Straits of Hormuz. As long as they want. I have seen plans to land a Marine division at Bandar Abbas to open the Straits of Hormuz, but then we are in a land war with country that has one million infantry. And we don’t have the Marines to spare for any length of time. Also, that still leaves a lot of coastline from which Iran could launch small missile boats.

So let us say that we bomb Iran, and they shut down the Gulf. The supply situation of our troops will quickly become critical. The first reaction would be to pull all units inside large bases. There will not be enough fuel to support all those local outposts that have been established. Most US supply will come from Turkey or by air. Look at the map again. It is a long way to fly to Iraq from anywhere. And I do not think we can count on being able to stage aircraft through any bases in Pakistan in a serious way, the Afghan bases are full up just supporting that war, Incilkik air base in Turkey will be swamped, and we only have enough capacity to supply one third of our troops by air anyway.

Airpower is a huge US advantage, but in this scenario we no longer be able to supply enough fuel to maintain air support. Remember, we will be flying everything in, including aviation fuel. The only air support will come from Turkey, (if Turkey is willing) or carriers in the Med. And they will have to overfly Syria or Jordan. What will those countries say to that?

Oh, and don’t forget, the Iranians are lobbing missiles into US installations, and the Shia close the roads and isolate US installations, and Iran let’s anti air shoulder fired missiles into Iraq, something they have not done up to this point. We are not going to supply our troops by air at a survivable level. At this point the Green Zone would probably have to be abandoned as too difficult to supply.

We would be in slow strangulation, but the end result would be that we would be forced to leave Iraq. Now here we have some more problems. I have mentioned the huge number of contractors. About 30,000 are those infamous guards like Blackwater, but many others are mechanics, cooks, drivers etc. These people are not uniformed military, and many are third country nationals. If the chips go down for the US, they will defiantly panic. The only thought on their minds will be the next plane out. The Merc security guards are guarding US diplomatic personnel, and high ranking military officers. they will have the opportunity to take hostages to secure their ticket out, and they will have the ability to cause massive confusion. In any case, they will no longer be performing their jobs.

If the Turks allow US troops to pass though Turkish territory, probably most will be able to evacuate through there. But most will have to walk. Since over a year ago, there have not been enough vehicles to equip all units in Iraq. Two or three battalions share one battalion sets of vehicles.

Now Turkey is poised to invade northern Iraq and attack the Kurds, the only US ally in Iraq. The US now must choose one or the other. (I say Turkey, no brainer there)

The US retreat will have to be in a series of Kessels. Kessel is a German word meaning cauldron, or large kettle. It refers to German formations on the East front in Russia in WWII, who, surrounded by Soviet advances, would fight their way out. The troops on the west end toward the German lines would fight the breakout battles, troops on the east end would be the rear guard, and the northern and southern units would protect the flanks. All the wounded and supply would be in the middle.

In such an operation, the ability of the US to supply air support would be minimal, as I have said the only reliable air support would be though the Med over flying Jordan or Syria. Bombers from Diego Garcia would need air to air refueling, and so would any aircraft dropping supplies on the Kessels making their way out.

It would be nasty little infantry fights all the way.

by this method, Kessel extraction through Turkey, we could probably evacuate 50% to 80% of our troops in Iraq. The troops in Bahrain and Qatar would be mostly lost. The percentage of losses among contractors would be much higher.

If Turkey closed the border to Americans, the best bet would be to try to fight through the Syrians, and get picked up by the US Navy on the Syrian coast. Don’t try the Turks if they are hostile. By this way, we might get 30% out.

For those that don’t get out, it would be best to try to surrender to the Iranians. Arabs do not take prisoners, they take hostages or slaves.

In this writing I have not addressed the effect on the world economy. In just ten days, the threat of a Turkish attack on Kurdistan has sent oil jumping up some $8 a barrel. Attack Iran and yes, I think we will see $200 a barrel oil.

These are just some military thoughts on this subject, I do believe that if we attack Iran in any way, this scenario becomes inevitable.

There is no reason to attack Iran. They want to be friendly with the US. Iran gave significant and essential help in the fight for Afghanistan. The present American political leadership has rebuffed their overtures at every turn, and instead responded with threats. It is time to stop this insanity.