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On the Ground in Iowa

A friend who’s lived in Iowa a long time, and who was a precinct captain for Joe Biden last night, checked in this morning with a report on the caucus in her neighborhood.

. . . [T]here actually was a good bit of rejection of Hillary tonight, if you look at what was happening on the ground. People were literally working to deprive her of delegates. In my precinct, which was small (around 120), we had three delegates. [Ed. note: The precinct would select three delegates in all.] Obama had a large crowd and was obviously getting at least one delegate. Hillary’s group was next in size. The Biden, Richardson, Dodd, and Edwards groups (Edwards’ folks were surprisingly without a precinct captain) weren’t viable [Didn’t reach the 15 percent of caucusers required to move on to the next step in the process—Ed.] so coalesced into an “undecided” group, and I think many of them mainly just wanted to rob Hillary of any chance of getting another delegate. Some actually said so. (”Well, we need to do something to keep HER from getting anything.”) The undecided group was bigger than the Hillary group before it was all over. I don’t think I noticed ANYONE breaking for Hillary during the alignment period.

Something else interesting: Hillary’s groups were perceived as being quite nasty in not only our caucus but several others I’ve heard from. Some of her people broke in our caucus for the Obama group, and the Hillary crowd was yelling at them. Two little kids were there, and one girl said, “Why are those people yelling at my mommy?” The Obama precinct captain had to ask the precinct chair to ask the Hillary group to stop yelling. The alignment process was over, and they were still being obnoxious.

The Hillary precinct captain wasn’t a local, but an outsider who had gotten the gig just two days ago. She seemed perturbed that I wouldn’t let her take over one whole side of the library (in a jr. high). . . . When she got pushy, I just told her that “we have 6 candidates here and everybody needs some space. You can have the area up to here, and I’ll take the next section.”

In our calls in the past week, we’ve heard quite a bit of “anybody but Hillary” comments. And that’s among committed Democrats. Really, if she is nominated, the Dems won’t support her, and she’ll lose.

Apparently, some Edwards supporters broke to the Obama group just to spite the Hillary group. The pushiness of the Hillary captains probably didn’t help matters.
My friend, who started the campaign last summer as a strong Obama supporter, wouldn’t have switched to Biden or volunteered to serve as a precinct captain unless he was the real thing. That he got less than two percent of the vote was the biggest surprise of the caucuses to me. It was to Biden and his people, too, apparently:

I’m not so sure that the caucus system did not break tonight. My caucus was small and all went well. All the ones I’ve heard from doubled in size, meaning the big ones got 600-700 people. It was chaos. You can’t really caucus with that many people. The number of delegates is determined by how many have voted in the precinct in the past. What happens when the number doubles? You get a very high number threshold to be able to get a delegate. So the second tier were all effectively knocked out right away. The crowds were too big for the precinct captains to work and make deals. I think that if we had just voted, we would have had 10% go to Biden from my caucus, and a lot of similar numbers (or more) for him around the state. That’s not far under what McCain got. But the way it worked, it’s like winner take all or something.

A candidate getting 10-15% of the vote should not be registering in at 1-2%. I feel a little depressed this morning, not so much because my candidate lost, but because it feels like something is seriously wrong with our democracy here. If my candidate had lost fair and square and was actually pulling in only 1% of the vote, I’d think, “Fine. We gave it our best shot.” But Joe had momentum going into Thursday night—growing, passionate crowds, signing up 100 precinct captains in a single day—things like that. Two more weeks and he would have been at 20%, I’m sure of it, and with spending only $10 million in the state. And none of that is reflected in the final numbers. Biden deserved to go to NH, and the American people deserved to have someone of his caliber in the race. And Richardson should be showing up a lot stronger than he is, too. It’s also ridiculous that there are only a few days between IA and NH.

Anybody still want to argue that this obtuse system is better than a primary? Or that it isn’t undemocratic?

Some random observations of my own, not that you care, based on what I’ve read this morning: The number of independents indicating support for Obama is encouraging—he’s clearly better able to reach people who are not natural Democrats than either Hillary or Edwards. The number of people aged 17-29 who came out for him impresses me less—remember that the “youth vote” was supposed to make the difference for John Kerry in 2004 and it didn’t. As regular readers of this bilge might remember, I have been worried about Hillary’s negatives forever, and nothing I’ve read about last night makes me think they’re any less of a problem, or that the situation’s going to change. The Huffington Post column somebody mentioned in the comments makes a good point about Obama vs. Hillary, and the idea of looking forward versus looking back. The thought of refighting the Clinton-era battles, both in the campaign and for the next four years if Hillary somehow managed to win, is simply nauseating.

Let us know what you’re thinking.

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Comments

Comment from timr
Time: January 4, 2008, 10:21 am

JAB, why should any one drop out because of what happened in Iowa? A minority of a minority makes some selections, and because of those selections, several people drop out of the race. Why did they drop out? Because of what the MSM did/said? Because of what the punditocracy said? So about 218,000 people get to decide for everyone else in the country. Total BS. We might just as well pick our prez candidates based on polls of 1000 likely voters, oh wait, the MSM has been picking the leaders in the race that way for months haven’t they

Comment from John
Time: January 4, 2008, 10:45 am

I can confirm that Hillary Clinton had a hard time reaching viability in my precinct, as well. This was a new precinct for me since last time, so I couldn’t say whether the crowd was up significantly, but it was certainly a tight fit in the space provided. I was also disappointed to see Dodd and Biden squeezed out, but I’m not sure I agree that they were unfairly deprived of delegates. Ultimately, those delegates would just go to another candidate at the convention anyway. The point of the caucus is, in part, to narrow the field. That’s why viability is such a major concern.

For another Iowa City take on caucus night, click here:
http://www.bostonmagazine.com/blogs/boston/2008/01/04/dispatch-from-iowa/#more-1129

Comment from KN
Time: January 4, 2008, 10:48 pm

Where do 200,000 Iowans get off thinking it is their responsibility to narrow the field for the rest of the nation? People don’t hate Iowa because we are first, but because for so many candidates we are last. States down the line have a right to more of a choice than three big-monied, media-favored candidates. And if you don’t think anyone was deprived of delegates, read this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matthew-palevsky-and-bess-kalb/biden-stripped-of-caucus-_b_79709.html

Last night was a zoo. There was little dialogue going on in the large precincts. Iowa Democrats have outgrown the caucuses in their current configuration. We need to switch to the system the Republicans are using: show up, hear a brief speech about the candidates, vote, sign up if you want to go to the convention, and leave. Everyone gets to weigh in on their first choice and have that vote represented in the final count.

It is an insult to a distinguished elder statesman like Biden, who did run the best campaign possible with only $10 million in a field of candidates who spent many times that, to be slapped in the face with a final tally of 1% when he actually gained much more support than that. Frankly, I think the Iowa Democratic party owes both him and Richardson an apology. (My impression is that Dodd was deader than dead in actual numbers, but I could be wrong.)

Bartlett’s editorial note defined viability as “the 15 percent of caucusers required to move on to the next step in the process.” That is incorrect. In my caucus (worth 3 delegates), the viability threshold was 17%. In a precinct with one delegate, the caucus as a whole elects the delegate. In a precinct with two delegates, the groups must have 25% to be viable. Only with 4 or more delegates is 15% the standard. What kind of system is this? Wouldn’t 1 person, 1 vote be a whole helluva lot easier and more democratic?

The whole caucus system is a disorganized mess on the Democrats’ side. The caucus chairs have way too much power to make arbitrary decisions — nothing is standardized, including whether each candidate could have someone speak for them, at what point in the process this would happen, and for how long. Luckily, I knew the rules well enough to correct my precinct chair two or three times before a completely wacked ruling was made.

I’m excited that so many more people participated this time, but the party was not prepared for it. We need a simpler, more standardized, more democratic system that can handle absorbing so many new participants. 60% of last night’s caucus-goers had never caucused before. In some locations, there weren’t enough registration slips or even enough space to let everyone in. People left mad and frustrated.

There’s not enough space here for all the frustrations I’ve heard, mostly from people who were disappointed that standing up for a second tier candidate meant zero for that candidate. I hope those people don’t choose to just stay home next time.

Comment from KN
Time: January 4, 2008, 11:01 pm

Oh, and on this point: “Ultimately, those delegates would just go to another candidate at the convention anyway.”

The convention hasn’t really mattered in a long time. It’s the media buzz after the caucuses that can make or break a candidate. That’s what matters. If an candidate comes in at 15%, he might be considered still alive. If he’s at 1%, he’s dead. If those percentages don’t really reflect their actual support, the American people are receiving incorrect info about the candidates. This is bad.

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