The US government is presently backtracking over Iran. In fact, watching the US administration shift their position reminds of watching several people playing a game of “twister”.

OK, so they are saying that the Iranians have toned down their support for attacks inside Iraq.

First of all, there are two main Shitte factions in Iraq.

Number one, SCIRI, Supreme Council for Islamic Liberation in Iraq. They have an armed wing called the Badr Corps. My estimates of numbers for this group are about 20,000 to 30,000. They are led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. They spent the Saddam years in exile in Iraq. Over time, the Iranians helped them to build up political and military strength.

Despite occasional US provocations, such as arresting two Iranian delegates who were visiting the house of the leader Al-Hakim, conflicts between the Badr corps and US forces have been extremely limited.

This organization would logically have Iranian support in many ways. As far as I know, the two delegates were recently returned after about a years’ detention.

Most of the fighting that they are doing is with the Sadrists for control of Basra in the south. Their strength lies in the countryside between Baghdad and Basra.

Number two, the Sadrists. They are led by Muqtada al-Sadr, and he is my guess for who will eventually rule Iraq. The Al-Sadr family never went into Iranian exile, his father and other relatives were tortured and killed by Saddam’s police. Muqtada’s forces, the Mahdi Army, number some 60,000, although they have much less heavy weaponry, or formal training. Their strength lies in Baghdad. However, he has been in an on and off battle with the Badr Corps for control of Basra and other southern points.

He has fought two heavy battles with he US, one of them was for control of Najaf which lasted for a month. In each battle, US firepower smashed his forces, but Muqtada emerged from each one with more prestige and military power. Classic guerrilla victory. Muqtada is generally suspicious of Iranian influence, and while he does have relations with Teheran, I doubt that he gets much support.

The US has constantly said that the Iranians up to no good in Iraq. Well the one faction they have influence with is quiet, and they certainly would not arm the Sunnis’. In the WaPo article, it seems that the US government simply assumes Iran is playing an active role. There has never been any concrete proof of extensive Iranian involvement.

It would not be in Iran’s interest to overly provoke America, it was very obvious to every body that once America could not establish a government in Iraq that could America could control, America would someday be forced to withdraw. so it is my guess that they just are waiting.

To successfully withdraw from Iraq, America will at the least need Iranian neutrality. And I see no good reason why the US should not have warm relations with Iran. Not one good reason. It is high time to put intelligent people back in charge of US policy, and put the ideological idiots back in boxes.