J.A. BARTLETT
Thursday, January 11, 2007
No Deal

Quotable, from around the blogs:

The News Blog:
Bush's plan is a fantasy, a dangerous one which also provokes Iran to no good purpose. . . . While the Iraqis made a lot of promises and big talk, remember ONE thing. Moqtada Sadr hung Saddam Hussein. Not the government, and they had to go along. So any threat from Maliki should be taken as a threat from Kerensky to tell Lenin that Trotsky needs to control the Bolsheviks.
Also worth remembering: Despite what we've been hearing and will continue to hear, what Bush announced last night was not a new strategy. "New strategy" implies a change in big, overarching goals. What he actually announced were new tactics--and tactics are how you achieve your large strategic goals which, the speech made clear, have not changed. So all the speech was, really, was another promise that more Americans will be slaughtered in hopes of accomplishing something we've already proven we can't do, only this one pushed Deal or No Deal back half-an-hour.

Daily Kos has a great comparison of what Bush has said before to what he said last night that starkly demonstrates how last night was a greatest-hits compilation of past Bush remarks on the war, which proves, in effect, that the man isn't serious about changing either tactics or strategy.

Another way in which Bush demonstrates his basic unseriousness is by the numbers. True, you could probably quell the violence in Baghdad with more troops, but 21,500 ain't gonna do it. From AMERICABlog:
Imagine a U.S. state, say, Michigan, was embroiled in violence between Protestants and Catholics. Say the former were roughly 60% of the state, the latter 20%, and the rest a mix of Jewish, Muslim, and atheist people trying to avoid the bloodshed. And by bloodshed I'm talking about around 12,000 dead in the last year at least, and possibly closer to 50,000, keeping the proportions right (for reference, the actual number of murders in all of Michigan in 2005 was . . . 615). Now imagine that to solve this, we sent the NYPD into Michigan. Because that's the kind of proportionate numbers we're talking about in Iraq -- a state of 8 million being "stabilized and managed" by 37,000 people is just about the same as a nation of 30 million and a force of 140,000. Does anybody really think that the NYPD could pacify the entire state of Michigan if people who looked the same and talked the same and lived in the same neighborhoods were blowing each other up every day? Even knowing the language and having a similar culture, I think most reasonable observers would find such a proposition ridiculous.
Today we start finding out whether the average run of Americans finds this proposition ridiculous. The degree to which they do--and the degree to which Democrats are not frightened by the evolving media meme of Bush the Resolute backed by Lieberman the Bipartisan--will determine just how many more American soldiers have to die for this Iraq mistake.

Bottom line: The speech changed nothing, except to make clear that the whole Iraq thing is going to be dumped into the lap of President Whomever two years from now. Bush's "New Way Forward" barely deserves notice, let alone serious consideration. For the last word, here's Digby, suspicious of Bush's assertion that he was upset by viewing the video of Saddam Hussein's execution:
[T]here's always the possibility that he really was upset at the sight of a former head of state essentially being lynched by his people. You can certainly understand why he'd find that a little bit unnerving.
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